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October 27, 2007   

Jeffrey Bader gives
Griffin China Center lecture

By Will Ahern, Staff Writer

The China Center of the University of Minnesota is dedicated to building U.S – China relationships and promoting mutual respect between the two. The annual Bob and Kim Griffin Lecture series held Sept. 20 moved this mission forward. Funded by a generous donation to the China Center by Kim and Bob Griffin, this annual lecture series started in 2001 and has recently presented such topics as "India’s Growth from the perspective of China’s Experience", and "Dollar vs. RMB: What Does a Devaluation of the Chinese Currency Mean for the U.S. Economy". This year’s event addressed some of the complexities of China’s energy interests.

After a welcome by Yongwei Zhang, China Center Director, opening remarks by Bob Griffin, president of Griffin International Companies, and an introduction by Meredith McQuaid Associate Vice President and Dean, International Programs, Dr. Jeffrey Bader began his lecture. Dr. Jeffrey Bader, Director of the John L. Thornton China Center and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, presented a lecture titled "China and the Middle East: From revolution to stability … to challenge?" With oil near all time highs, the relevance of this year’s presentation was particularly timely.

In the early 1990s, China began to move from a net exporter to a net importer of crude oil. This has led China to intensify its relationships with countries of the Middle East and elsewhere. This interest makes China instinctively favor stability, not turmoil in the Middle East. It is Dr. Bader’s opinion that as the United States and China are the world’s two largest consumers of oil; they have built-in reasons for cooperation, rather than conflict, on energy issues. Some of those reasons include assurance of access to oil at affordable prices, stability in markets, increase in supply, and greater efficiency in use.

Dr. Bader described a brief history of China’s Mideast relationships starting in the 1960s as an extension of Maoist revolutionary policies similar to home. Early relationships with Egypt existed and they recognized the PLO in the mid-60s. China’s approach to the Middle East began to change in the 1970s as it began to align itself with the United States against the Soviet Union. It developed its first associations with Iran starting with the Shah and continuing with Ayatollah Khomeini after the revolution. During the Iran/Iraq war China provided weapons to both sides to the tune of several hundred million dollars per year.

Things changed in the early 1990s as China’s energy needs changed and further economic reforms took place. In 1993, China became a net importer of oil as demand began to explode. Today, China consumes approximately 7 million barrels per day and by 2020 it is estimated that China may require as much as 13.5 million barrels per day.

China has developed strategic relationships with Saudi Arabia and others to address these needs. They are building additional refining capacity in China.

This subject is a complex one and Dr. Bader continued to outline many key facts and assumptions throughout his 30 minute presentation.

While there are certainly challenges ahead as the U.S. and China seek oil, it is apparent that cooperation, not confrontation will be in both party’s best interests.

 


Listen to the speech by Jeffrey Bader
 


Dr. Jeffrey Bader, Director of the John L. Thornton China Center and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution


Bob Griffin, president of
Griffin International Companies


Dr. Yongwei Zhang, Director of the
University of Minnesota China Center


Kim and Bob Griffin at post lecture reception


Bruce Dayton and Dr. Bader prior to lecture

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