Jeffrey Bader gives
Griffin China Center lecture
By Will
Ahern, Staff Writer
The China
Center of the University of Minnesota is dedicated to
building U.S – China relationships and promoting mutual
respect between the two. The annual Bob and Kim Griffin
Lecture series held Sept. 20 moved this mission forward.
Funded by a generous donation to the China Center by Kim
and Bob Griffin, this annual lecture series started in
2001 and has recently presented such topics as "India’s
Growth from the perspective of China’s Experience", and
"Dollar vs. RMB: What Does a Devaluation of the Chinese
Currency Mean for the U.S. Economy". This year’s event
addressed some of the complexities of China’s energy
interests.
After a
welcome by Yongwei Zhang, China Center Director, opening
remarks by Bob Griffin, president of Griffin
International Companies, and an introduction by Meredith
McQuaid Associate Vice President and Dean, International
Programs, Dr. Jeffrey Bader began his lecture. Dr.
Jeffrey Bader, Director of the John L. Thornton China
Center and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution,
presented a lecture titled "China and the Middle East:
From revolution to stability … to challenge?" With oil
near all time highs, the relevance of this year’s
presentation was particularly timely.
In the
early 1990s, China began to move from a net exporter to
a net importer of crude oil. This has led China to
intensify its relationships with countries of the Middle
East and elsewhere. This interest makes China
instinctively favor stability, not turmoil in the Middle
East. It is Dr. Bader’s opinion that as the United
States and China are the world’s two largest consumers
of oil; they have built-in reasons for cooperation,
rather than conflict, on energy issues. Some of those
reasons include assurance of access to oil at affordable
prices, stability in markets, increase in supply, and
greater efficiency in use.
Dr. Bader
described a brief history of China’s Mideast
relationships starting in the 1960s as an extension of
Maoist revolutionary policies similar to home. Early
relationships with Egypt existed and they recognized the
PLO in the mid-60s. China’s approach to the Middle East
began to change in the 1970s as it began to align itself
with the United States against the Soviet Union. It
developed its first associations with Iran starting with
the Shah and continuing with Ayatollah Khomeini after
the revolution. During the Iran/Iraq war China provided
weapons to both sides to the tune of several hundred
million dollars per year.
Things
changed in the early 1990s as China’s energy needs
changed and further economic reforms took place. In
1993, China became a net importer of oil as demand began
to explode. Today, China consumes approximately 7
million barrels per day and by 2020 it is estimated that
China may require as much as 13.5 million barrels per
day.
China has
developed strategic relationships with Saudi Arabia and
others to address these needs. They are building
additional refining capacity in China.
This
subject is a complex one and Dr. Bader continued to
outline many key facts and assumptions throughout his 30
minute presentation.
While
there are certainly challenges ahead as the U.S. and
China seek oil, it is apparent that cooperation, not
confrontation will be in both party’s best interests.